Tuesday, October 9, 2012


Non seasonal data is seasonalized by comparing the same month to the year before.  If the spread between two lines is widening then the job situation is better than the seasonal expectation.  And if the spread is narrowing the job situation is less good than normal.

The widest spread between blue 2012 and purple 2011 was in February.  By September the spread narrowed by 351,000 jobs, though this is hard to see on the scale of the chart.

Conclusion, job growth has gone a little negative over the summer and into the Fall.

Source is establishment data table B1 line two “Total private “.  Non-farm private sector jobs are the only important jobs.  The growth in government jobs at this point is destructive to the economy.

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