Tuesday, October 9, 2012


Non seasonal data is seasonalized by comparing the same month to the year before.  If the spread between two lines is widening then the job situation is better than the seasonal expectation.  And if the spread is narrowing the job situation is less good than normal.

The widest spread between blue 2012 and purple 2011 was in February.  By September the spread narrowed by 351,000 jobs, though this is hard to see on the scale of the chart.

Conclusion, job growth has gone a little negative over the summer and into the Fall.

Source is establishment data table B1 line two “Total private “.  Non-farm private sector jobs are the only important jobs.  The growth in government jobs at this point is destructive to the economy.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Commercial & Industrial Loans trend

Boom Bust


See the bust 1990, then boom, then bust 2000, then boom, then bust 2008, and now we are at the trend line.  Let us just grow credit at the trendline and accept high unemployment as normal.
Doing otherwise means to me an attempt to create a more powerful government class at the expense of the private sector middle class.  Now the Fed has entered the politics with their part in the mortgage bail out.
Pricing capital so low and quantitative easing are an easy substitute for economic structural reform.  But it seems necessary as half the populous is greek/argentine so reform is impossible when having to overcome special interests is already near impossible that requires an educated and enlighted citizenry.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

A main role of government

The government should try to make as many people as possible self sufficient.  The government does the opposite. It tries to make as many people dependent on government as possible.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Two Kinds of People

Consumptionist vs. Capital Accumulationist
Inflationist vs. Deflationist
#OccupyWallStreetist vs. Tea Partyist
Market Manipulationist vs. Free Marketist
Humanist vs. Religionist
Bailoutist vs. Let'em Failist
Europeanist vs. Americanist
Racialist vs. Color Blindist
Social Engineerist vs.Level Playing Fieldist
Moral Hazzardist vs. see bailoutist
Dependencyist vs. Self Sufficiencyist
Microists vs. Macroists

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Where the Blame Resides

Just like during the dot com bubble, when Americans no longer aspired to become millionaires but billionaires, the greed of the citizenry during the housing bubble is where the real blame rests. Attempts to say it was all Wall Street, or all the Government, or both, while having truth, divert from the big picture truth of the culture in the U.S.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Contrasting the U.S. and Europe


The United States has common welfare provided by the central government. This allows the less productive states and regions live within a framework where there are more productive states and regions. Europe doesn’t have that nor was it considered in the fiscal union proposal. The fiscal union proposals are designed to have the lower productive countries live within their means. This will create a stark contrast between countries and regions. While the poor states and regions in the U.S. can be very poor, the poor are much better off than the poor will ever be in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal without central European welfare should the fiscal union actually happen.

The European countries that are doing well are up to their eyeballs in debt from their own individual social benefit systems.  And they can't raise their taxes any further because they are taxed to the max.  The good economies have little surplus they can give to maintain the life styles of the people in the countries not doing well.

The U.S. has more room to borrow.  But why become like them?  Why raise our taxes and borrow to the point where taxes can't be raised any further and borrowing has reached its limit.  There is only one way from that point and it is a decline in lifestyle.

My European Simple Solution


There is so much effort and resources in the world devoted to maintaining the massive level of credit money. In Europe the sovereign credit money was squandered on consumption with no concern for rate of return. For Europe, my solution is to let countries go bankrupt and stay in the monetary union. The European Central Bank will have to print money to bail out the banks but not the countries.